Pennsylvania, McCain and Pickett's Charge

Herewith my own take on the new McCain Pennsylvania "strategy" that Mike Crowley brought up here, reconsidered here, and further eludes to here. This sums it up:

The go-north strategy assumes McCain thinks he can hold Virginia. But, even though VA wasn't named in yesterday's CNN story about states at least one McCain insider considers "gone," his chances there are looking awfully bleak, even if you assume a surprise Bradley effect. If Virginia's gone, too, then PA really is McCain's last shot.

I don't get it.

Looking at the polling in PA, it just doesn't seem like a good play. PA has gone blue for the last 4 elections, and Obama is ahead there by double digits--as much as 12 points in some polls. McCain hasn't been ahead in PA in a single poll since at least May. Even when McCain was surging, he wasn't winning PA.

And poster Mike, responding to Crowley's "reconsidered" post, makes nice point:

It's looking more like the primary where Plouffe's ground game built too many firewalls before Hillary invaded a state. Plus, McCain knows the $150 million in October combined with the flood of new donors means Obama began his version of Rove's final 72 hours when polls opened. McCain can burn his time and money in PA for the rest of the week but by early next week he'll know if Obama has already done the job on the ground. At that point he might save a close down ballot race but won't reclaim any state where 1/3 of the vote is locked in and it shows he's several points behind.

So I have to ask myself: is this a hail-Mary, a head-fake, or a kamikaze mission? Somebody help me out here. I agree that taking PA maybe wins McCain the election, VA or no VA--assuming Obama loses all the other battlegrounds: OH and MO and NV and FL and NC, which is not a done deal by any means. (I don't include CO as a battleground anymore; I think it's solid blue in 2008.)

Okay, sure, in that scenario PA wins McCain the election--but that's kind of like R. E. Lee saying, ca March 1865, that taking the Eastern Seaboard brings victory to the Confederacy. Absolutely true, and totally irrelevant, since Lee had no hope of capturing the Eastern Seaboard. And McCain, to my eye, has next to no hope of capturing PA.

Am I just fucked in the head, here? Because I really don't get it. Somebody please help me out, because PA for McCain looks like Pickett's Charge to me.

Hey, Guys!

Brian, I wish I had seen more remarks from you. Do you have any overarching thoughts about the debate? Anybody?

One Initial Thought

In passing I note that McCain's final statement was actually more airy than Obama's. McCain appears to honor and his family history. Obama appeals more directly to the voters.

More importantly: A lot of analysts, including George Will, have been saying that McCain's best line of attack is to raise the spectre of an undivided, liberal Democratic government.

McCain didn't do that. Interesting.

School Daze

McCain sez education is the "civil rights issue of the 21st century." Sounds smart. I'm not sure exactly what it means.

McCain looks kinda creepy. Obama has clearly thought about the education issue, and gives a pretty sharp answer. His speech is more fluid again, too.

The A Word

McCain makes it into an attack on Obama. Obama makes it about making good decisions.

Oh, here goes the jab at the McCain, and a thinly-veiled appeal to women.

John McCain talks about the "terribly difficult decision." Of course, he doesn't want it to be a decision.

I see at 538 that XX dialers are giving this one to Obama so far. Men: mixed.

McC: "That's the extreme pro-abortion position: health (of the mother)." Ooh. Good answer. Not.

Health Care

Obaama talks directly into the camera again, and gives a smart, if unimpassioned, answer.

Back to Joe the Plumber, who has already made the transformation from affecting and effective reference to a cheap gimmick. MK sez: he's gone from caring about Joe to using Joe. It's clear who he's targeting here: Joe, the white middle-class voter.

Obama talks to Joe: "Here's your fine, Joe: ZERO." He goes on to skewer McCain's health care plan.

McCain's counter is snarky. And completely untrue. Obama talks to Joe again.

Side note: snarkiness and small-scale fireworks aside, this debate so far is a lot about numbers and facts and such dryness. I don't see anything so far to ignite the voters' passion. Does anybody else?

"Climate Control..."

...is what you have in your Cadillac.

McCain takes the opportunity to lecture Obama on nuclear power.

Obama gives a realistic answer, looking right into the camera. I don't think he's was doing enough of that before. Obama's speech is a bit stumbly, but he still makes his points clearly. When he pivots to the Free Trade issue he gets more fluent, and pins it to American business and workers.

McCain looks sharp when he parses Obama's "we need to look at offshore drilling."

Why Would the Country Be Better Off With YOUR VEEP?

OBama gives a ringing endorsement of Biden and links it, once again "to 8 failed years" and his economic plan for struggling individuals and small businesses and energy and, gosh, we could all give this answer by now.

McC: "Americans have gotten to know Sarah Palin."

Yeah. Well. That's your problem, John-boy.

McCain appeals to the Special Needs voting block. After all, none of the other voting blocks are working out for him.

Is she qualified? Obama refuses to take the bait. "That's up to the American people." As to the special needs kids, John-boy, your across the board spending cut will kill research and special programs for those kids.

Say It To His Face Continued

First off: McCain never said it to his face.

Obama keeps bringing it back to this issue.

ACORN is destroying the fabric of democracy? Why wasn't I told?

"Mr. Ayers has become the centerpiece of Mr. McCain's campaign." Zing.

Obama has to go on the defensive for a minute, to brush aside ACORN and Ayers. Necessary, and he does it well, pivoting into a positive counter against McCain. "Says more about McCain's campaign than it does about me."

Can You Say It To His Face?

McCain's assertion that all the nastiness could have been avoided if only Obama had down the town halls hasn't worked before and it still sounds lame. Also, he falsely accuses Obama of not repudiating Lewis' remarks.

Obama takes the high road. "Let's make it about the issues."

No such luck. It's OBama who's running all the negative ads!

McCain is chomping at the bit. Again, he looks like The Angry Warrior. Obama looks like the Cool Cucumber.

Aren't You BOTH Out of Touch With Reality?

Obama's answer is okay, but a bit analytical.

McCain brings it right back to home values. Shieffer has to steer both of them back to the question.

Offshore drilling from McCain again. Not only is it a false issue, but it's getting old. And the spending freeze again. Then he gets made about the debt again, which nobody really gives two fucks about anymore. Subsidies for ethanol? Excuse me?

And the overhead projector again? Weird.

McCain is definitely swinging. He knows he's in the fight of his life. Obama is trying to give the impression that he's parrying calmly.

They're mixing it up a little, which is good.

Why Is Your Plan Better? Why, Joe the Plumber.

McCain gets a chance to swing at the first pitch on economics, which is good for him. McCain's answer sounds solid on the surface. An opportunity for him to speak to the economic concerns of everyday Americans.

Obama goes right to the Middle Class. (Can't remember if McCain said the Magic Words.)

McCain's counter is about some plumber named Joe, and how Obama is destroying the American dream. Will Obama talk to Joe by name?

No, but he does talk to "95% of you out there," looking right into the camera. And he responds on the "Joe the Plumber issue."

I think this exchange is a draw, or even a slight advantage to McCain!

Waiting For The Asteroid

The talking heads all seem to think that McCain has to drop some sort of bombshell to stay in the race tonight. It's also CW that this puts McCain in a tight spot: he can't go negative, but he can't win without going negative. I'm betting that McCain ends the night with a whimper rather than a bag. But I could certainly be wrong. Let's just see, shall we?

Talkbackers Liveblog!

Well, some of us, at least.

Here's how I think we should do this. Short individual posts on specific chunks of the debate. When I liveblogged the last debate on my own blog, I did it by questions. But any approach you like is fine. The key is to make short posts, as this allows you to quickly pivot to the next issue in your next post.

And that's it. No other rules, except, of course, those that govern basic human civility.

Let's go for it!