Salazar: Just For Tep

Surely you heard, Ken Salazar will be Interior Sec. I remember Tep being a bit enamored of him. Seems like a good guy, plus he wears a bolo!

As world swoons, Russia escalates

Welcome to the real world, Obama.

PM Medvedev announces that Russia will act immediately to put Iskander missiles deep within the west, in its Kaliningrad enclave that is located on Poland's Baltic shore.

No word as to whether the missiles will have nukes. Or when we can expect a Russian lightning strike to take back Crimea and its naval base from Ukraine.

While the US press sleeps, The London Times pays attention to that part of the world that understands and respects only power-- ie, the world that lies to the east of the postmodern EU:

"Medvedev announced that Russia would base Iskander missiles in its Baltic enclave of Kaliningrad next to the border with Poland.

He did not say whether the short-range missiles would carry nuclear warheads. Mr Medvedev also cancelled earlier plans to withdraw three intercontinental ballistic missile regiments from western Russia.

"An Iskander missile system will be deployed in the Kaliningrad region to neutralise if necessary the anti-ballistic missile system in Europe," Mr Medvedev said in his first state-of-the-nation address.

He added that Russia was also ready to deploy its navy and to install electronic jamming devices to interfere with the US shield, which involves the deployment of a radar station in the Czech Republic and 10 interceptor missiles in Poland.

His announcement prompted a burst of applause from government ministers and parliamentary deputies assembled in the Kremlin. The President failed to congratulate Mr Obama or even to mention him by name during his 85-minute state of the nation address televised live across Russia...."

Hope.

On Another Topic Completely

From CT. I just found it hilarious. We all need hilarious right now, right? Go check it out.

Michael Turner 11.04.08 at 3:55 am

“An optional lead-in quote either from the blog entry or one of the comments above, sometimes blockquoted, sometimes double-quoted, sometimes both even though he suspects that the Chicago Manual of Style says something about how that’s redundant or misleading.”

Then he comments on the quote, rather acerbically, trying to balance high and low styles but often as not they tumble to the floor like a some word-juggler’s stumbling attempt to assemble a surrealistic image in the reader’s mind. There’s often some wrap-up sentence fragment that, bathetically, sheepishly, acknowledges the mess for what is, in all-too-obvious hopes that the self-deprecation will carry the day.

Seemingly undeterred, if anything seemingly plucky, but actually increasingly desperate and fearful of being misinterpreted, he either riffs on some other surrealistic imagery inspired by the inanity of the quote, or he adopts something like the tone of the passage quoted, carrying on the parody in that mode. However,in his attempt to reign in the more obvious sarcasm, he produces a paragraph whose humor might go over the heads of some in the audience (“’Audience’?! As if ….”)

Optional final paragraph, either with decidedly more overt humor to make it clear that the above was meant as a joke, or, if he’s tired and can’t reach that low, he reaches higher (even more self-defeatingly), and begins with “Seriously, ….”. He realizes only later, when someone else points it out to Captain Obvious, that there’s no really no point in arguing with the person quoted.

Seriously, he says, partially breaking with form (after all, the above was supposed to be the final paragraph, oh wait, that’s too obvious to comment on): I think everybody has missed something here. This new culture-jamming genre is also spoofing the “bonus content” you get on DVDs these days, where the directors, writers or cinematographers often review the entire film or TV episode, and are sometimes reduced to remarks like “he looks at the camera” just to fill time. The commentary seem to me aimed more at would-be industry participants – director-wannabes, cinematographer wannabes, film bores, etc.—than at professionals in the industry.

Rove Calls the Election...

...for Barack Obama, 338 to 200.

Sullydog's 2008 EV Prediction

Here's my prediction, based on the most recent polling. My research materials included 538.com, electoral-vote.com, rcp, pollster.com, cnn and msnbc. Obama wins the Kerry states + FL, IA, NM, CO, NV, NC and VA. He does NOT win OH, IN, MO, MT, AZ (gimme a break), ND or any contested district in NE.

Place your bets

Like most Democrats, I am feeling pretty good about this election, but how good do I really feel? Do I feel a landslide coming, or am I praying that we squeeze out a close one?

I think Obama will get 375 electoral votes, and the Democrats will win 58 Senate seats.

What about you?

Haunted

Happy Halloween!

Wassup!!!

You DO remember the old Budweiser ads - don't you?

Tep Love?

I am no longer a subscriber to TNR, but I do peruse....

West Nile and Foreclosures

Yup! Check it out: economy-linked-to-west-nile-virus-yup.html

Abandoned pools breed skeeters!

Step Up The Security, Obama!

Assassination plot targeting Obama disrupted

WASHINGTON (AP) - Federal agents have broken up a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama and shoot or decapitate 102 black people in a Tennessee murder spree, the ATF said Monday.

In court records unsealed Monday, federal agents said they disrupted plans to rob a gun store and target a predominantly African-American high school by two neo-Nazi skinheads. Agents said the skinheads did not identify the school by name.

Jim Cavanaugh, special agent in charge of the Nashville field office for the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, said the two men planned to shoot 88 black people and decapitate another 14. The numbers 88 and 14 are symbolic in the white supremacist community.

The men also sought to go on a national killing spree, with Obama as its final target, Cavanaugh told The Associated Press.

"They said that would be their last, final act - that they would attempt to kill Sen. Obama," Cavanaugh said. "They didn't believe they would be able to do it, but that they would get killed trying."

Greetings From Chicago

Hi, guys. I'm a little out of the loop this week. I'm attending the Scientific Assembly and Research Forum of the American College of Emergency Physicians in Chicago. Good times!

I hope you guys will pick up the slack, keep posting, maybe ignite an argument or two. I can't believe that, on our very own blog, Tep and Chan and Mr. Cookie can't get into a flame war.

My observation of the day: Palin's being called a "Diva" and a rogue candidate, and there's every indication that McCain's campaign can't shoot straight. Somebody tell me again...why should we even think about letting these two bozos run our country?

I'm soooo sorry

Teppy...and anyone else who may be in Palo Alto on Thursday, 10/30

How about Cafe Riace on 206 Sheridan Avenue in Palo Alto @ about 6:00 p.m.?

If you can make it, please confirm and I will be there. 

Cookie

Teppy and my other terrorist pals, 

Have you checked the morning polls? Whoa...outliers perhaps but I have readjusted my prediction of a 3-5 Obama victory to a 7-9 point forecast. Well over 300 electorals too. 

I do sincerely believe that the Powell endorsement was the coup de grace, or to put it in terms more appropriate to my m. o.: it was the fight ending kick to the nuts. 

Teppy, I have been SWAMPED but tonight, I will email you and others the exact Palo Alto restaurant for one week from tonight. I am looking forward to seeing you, and though it may turn out to only be you and me, we will have fun. I intend to bring my print copy of tnr and a camera. 

Cheerio, Ken aka thejauntyboulevardier, or the artist once known as mrcookie1

The Big Necessity

Rose George, the author of The Big Necessity, was interviewed by Leonard Lopate this week on his public radio program (WNYC-NY). George's subject is the global public health challenge of human defecation -- and it turns out to be a fascinating topic indeed. I thought some of my Talkback friends might enjoy hearing the interview.

As George points out, our access to sanitation is a privilege not enjoyed by billions of our neighbors on this planet. Four persons in ten have no access to sanitation (including 2 million Americans) - not even an outhouse. Compared with the health benefits of access to clean water, sanitation is twice as effective in reducing disease. Every 15 seconds, a child dies of diarrhea (90% of these cases are attributable to lack of sanitation).

UPDATE: I see that Brad Plumer posted on this topic at TNR's The Vine.

The Big Necessity: The Unmentionable World of Human Waste and Why It Matters by Rose George

Pennsylvania, McCain and Pickett's Charge

Herewith my own take on the new McCain Pennsylvania "strategy" that Mike Crowley brought up here, reconsidered here, and further eludes to here. This sums it up:

The go-north strategy assumes McCain thinks he can hold Virginia. But, even though VA wasn't named in yesterday's CNN story about states at least one McCain insider considers "gone," his chances there are looking awfully bleak, even if you assume a surprise Bradley effect. If Virginia's gone, too, then PA really is McCain's last shot.

I don't get it.

Looking at the polling in PA, it just doesn't seem like a good play. PA has gone blue for the last 4 elections, and Obama is ahead there by double digits--as much as 12 points in some polls. McCain hasn't been ahead in PA in a single poll since at least May. Even when McCain was surging, he wasn't winning PA.

And poster Mike, responding to Crowley's "reconsidered" post, makes nice point:

It's looking more like the primary where Plouffe's ground game built too many firewalls before Hillary invaded a state. Plus, McCain knows the $150 million in October combined with the flood of new donors means Obama began his version of Rove's final 72 hours when polls opened. McCain can burn his time and money in PA for the rest of the week but by early next week he'll know if Obama has already done the job on the ground. At that point he might save a close down ballot race but won't reclaim any state where 1/3 of the vote is locked in and it shows he's several points behind.

So I have to ask myself: is this a hail-Mary, a head-fake, or a kamikaze mission? Somebody help me out here. I agree that taking PA maybe wins McCain the election, VA or no VA--assuming Obama loses all the other battlegrounds: OH and MO and NV and FL and NC, which is not a done deal by any means. (I don't include CO as a battleground anymore; I think it's solid blue in 2008.)

Okay, sure, in that scenario PA wins McCain the election--but that's kind of like R. E. Lee saying, ca March 1865, that taking the Eastern Seaboard brings victory to the Confederacy. Absolutely true, and totally irrelevant, since Lee had no hope of capturing the Eastern Seaboard. And McCain, to my eye, has next to no hope of capturing PA.

Am I just fucked in the head, here? Because I really don't get it. Somebody please help me out, because PA for McCain looks like Pickett's Charge to me.

Sully, 

The Powell endorsement will test the GOP practice of trashing "heretics". When you consider what has happened to John Murtha, Richard Clarke, Chuck Hagel, Scott McClellan, and just last week, Chris Buckley - whose conservo bona fides are genetically coded - you see a pattern of immediate trash and smear. Will they do this with Colin Powell? The Powell UN presentation of faux documentation on behalf of the Administration he served will continue to raise eyebrows among die hard Democratic opponents of the war but I sense that with the general voting public, Powell still commands a reservoir of respect. If the McCain campaign and his GOP allies start to trash him - and remember he is African American and given this race, that could get very ugly - I think it will backfire big time. 

PS - Spent last night taking the evening Hearst Castle tour with my oldest compadre. What a magnificent experience. The Old Crazy Right Wing Mogul sure knew how to spend his father's millions. And like many billionaires, he turned his father's millions into billions. Great experience. Stunning views of the Pacific. 

Powell Endorses....

...Barack Obama.

It's not exactly an original thought that Obama probably locked up this endorsement some time ago, and kept Powell in pocket until the best time.

This was, undoubtedly, the best time, kicking McCain while he's down.

What will be the effect of this endorsement? It's hard to imaging that it's anything but great news for Barack, but what is the magnitude of this vector? I think there may be competing factors here. On the one hand, it further cements American's greater comfort with the idea of Obama as CiC. Notwithstanding the tarnishing of his rep by the UN presentation, Powell still commands great respect in this country. The endorsement also emphasizes that Obama is surrounding himself with, and listening to, some very smart, mainstream political, economic and foreign policy titans. OTOH, there may be an undercurrent of "Powell endorsed Obama cuz he's black." My guess is this view would be held predominantly by people who wouldn't vote for Obama anyway.

So, yeah, net positive for Obama. But the magnitude? The effect on the polls, and the election? Anybody's guess.

We Are All Icelanders Now--- er, hold on there...

Dispatch from Iceland: "Everybody is very tired — watching your country suffer like this is almost like watching someone you love become ill, it’s like suffering from a broken heart. Most of our tycoons seem to have left the country, and the government is under police protection — a first — but it doesn’t seem like people are angry or aggressive. We are stunned, very surprised, that this expansion adventure that made a few people very rich but didn’t really affect the general public, has turned out this disastrous."

Sounds insightful, poignant, etc, but this Icelandic journalist derives wise and unwise conclusions alike. Yes, community is good, and "greed, arrogance and materialism" should be "replaced by care and gratitude."

But before we all light a candle and warble Solidarity Forever, consider this: we are witnessing some very disturbing power grabs unseen within the western world for many decades. These overreaching expansions of the state are being designed by the very same crew of central/investment banker pollyannas who helped get us into this mess-- and then, unbelievably, told us a scant six months ago that everything was under control.

Contrary to the clamor for socialism heard now round the world, the nationalization of banking sectors for anything more than a brief spell is bad news. Is it likely that that central bankers who kept rates artificially low and credit unsustainably abundant will not make still more foolish mistakes with the extraordinary increase in financial assets that they have just now taken under their control?

We have too many, not too few, carpetbaggers battening on the federal government. The fed's de facto creation of national champion banks in this country is only going to compound the rot in DC.

Socialism is fine for children, the sick, and the elderly. But healthy adults under 70 need markets and market discipline. We need more protection and targeted state intervention for the former and less for the latter.

Bipolar dupe: Buffett/Graham/Grant's Mr Market

Based on the standard of writing true stuff you didn't know before-- aka real wisdom and insight, as opposed to bloggerism and punditry-- James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer is one of the most valuable contributors around. Read his WSJ piece, "The Confidence Game", which points out the foolishness of trusting our financial class to fix the mess they created. Read Grant-- his columns, his wonderful books, his newsletter (no, it's not a blog-- it's valuable, and you have to pay money for the value he provides). Ponder his insights. And get yourself a copy of Graham and Dodd's "Security Analysis" ASAP. There's not been a better time in the last two decades to buy US stocks. Graham and Dodd should be your guide.

1. "Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson harp[s]on confidence: 'Today, there is a lack of confidence in our financial system, a lack of confidence that must be conquered.' What Mr. Paulson did not get around to mentioning was the excess of confidence that preceded the shortfall...."

2. "High prices boost our confidence, low prices sap it. We seek out bargains in Wal-Mart, but run away from them on the New York Stock Exchange. The proliferation of investment bargains brings us no joy."

3. "In investment markets, confidence and coherence tend to restore themselves. The hardy souls who lead the way back derive their confidence not from the Treasury Secretary but from the pages of "Security Analysis," by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd, the value investor's bible. But these are frightening times, and there is no very large constituency favoring the natural restorative processes of free markets."

4. "In the past week alone, the Fed's balance sheet swelled by $179 billion, to a grand total of $1.77 trillion. In announcing such radical measures, intervening governments never fail to invoke confidence. They say they must restore it.

Destroying confidence, however, is what governments do best. And the confidence they can restore is usually the kind that got us where we are today. Inflation and moral hazard led directly to the immense overvaluation of equities and residential real estate -- and of the bloating of the leverage that sustained those prices...."

Sully, 

Nice format and gentle poke to get going. Got an email for a tnr editor this evening and the mag will have a video piece on the 10/16 bash. 

Also, the tnr endorsement will posted on Monday. 

A mini talk back gathering is taking place this 10/30 in Palo Alto. Joining me will be teppy, yard, O'Channy, and perhaps rishy. I will be taking pictures and sending them to the an editor and asking them to post shot. 

Mr. Cookie aka thejauntyboulevardier

Pulitzer Prize candidates: Streitfeld and Morgenson, NYT

In the spirit of contributing not ersatz punditry, or untrue stuff you and I already knew, to Sully's TalkBacker blog, here's a window on something true which you may not have known before: some solid NYT reporting by David Streitfeld and financial ace Gretchen Morgenson on the meme that the mess we're in was made largely by smart public officials and ex-officials acting on the best of intentions.

That meme posits that at the core of this mess was the multi-decade fixation, shared by well-intentioned pols in both parties, on enabling tens of millions of low-income households to share in the affluence created by massive overleverage.

Such affluence was, we now know, a mirage.

Yet bizarrely, no one thought to ask whether a nation in which more than half of the households have negative net worth could or should attain even 50% home ownership, let alone 60%, or the mind-petrifying figure of 70% that Barney Frank et al urged Fan and Fred onward towards just a few years ago.

As a case study in the road to financial hell being paved with the good intention of maximizing US home ownership, Streitfeld and Morgenson zero in on Henry Cisneros, formerly a star of the New Democrats, lately of shite-homebuilder KB Homes and shite-mortgagemonger Countrywide Financial.

Remember Cisneros? He was in my salad days one of the Dems' great hopes: super-educated, good-government, new ideas, new politics, liberal but intelligent about economics. before he flamed out in a sex scandal, Cisneros was one of the bright young lights of the New Democrats along with Gary Hart, Bill Clinton (hmm-- see a pattern here?), also, among the more abstemious, Bill Bradley, Paul Tsongas, and Albert Gore Jr.

Now, for my spin-- which isn't necessarily true (though I believe it to be so), and may not be fresh (probably isn't to those who've read and suffered my TalkBacks over the years).

Could we please stop the great Sharks v Jets pissfest and admit that the essence of this crisis is, was, will be for some time, overleverage?

And that both parties, and a large number of intellectual heavyweights advising both parties, for that matter nearly every major light in this nation aside from Warren Buffett, James Grant and a few other brave souls, thought that such high levels of leverage was a good and necessary thing?

And not just, as Miller and Modigliani of finance theory fame would have it, for firms but also for every US family with an address in a credit card direct marketer's database, as well as all God's lil' hedgefunders, and Uncle Sam and Aunt Fan and Aunt Sal and Uncle Fred and John Boy and Mary Ellen and all the huddled masses yearning to be free of renting and living within their means.

The culprit here is us. Our rotten political class is what we deserve.

And like any other self-destructive sap or addict, until we take the first step and admit our own culpability and state our desire to change, we will not get a better class or a stronger nation.

So here are some of the steps-- twelve are probably too many, though others may think they're too few-- that we Americans need to get back to national recovery:

1. Stop demonizing Otherside. Ain't no one but Americans here.

2. Start ruthlessly demanding -- of ourselves and our pols-- simple HONESTY first. Not "truth", not correctness, just simple logical tests, above all, an honest accounting of our financial commitments and our financial resources.

If you support policy X or Y or Z -- whether it's fighting an overseas war of choice, or importing a second underclass, or raising home ownership or funding discretionary medical treatment of one kind or another or whatever-- then bloody well tell the nation how WE -- not "you", or they, but we the public-- will pay for it. Down to the last nickel.

3. In line with #2, get f***ing serious, NOW, about entitlements. Recall step #1.

4. If you want a national dialogue, then be an instrument of light and understanding, not smirks and sneering. Add signal, not noise.

The internet has become a swamp of noise, garbage, fairytales, conspiracy theories, and even in the best cases, recycling of untrue stuff we've heard 1000x already.

Basta.

Some sort of digital age version of St Francis's Prayer is called for here. Anyone who shares this wish, please update St F's Prayer accordingly and post here-- and no, that's not an invitation to yet more forgettable, and regretfully, imperishable digital snark.

T

Death And Taxes

Tep Endorses Obama

In a strange way, I think we all knew he would; Tep, the mighty Talkbacker who would not be persuaded, was finally convinced that Obama is not so bad.

I think David Brooks today articulates perfectly why I'm comfortable voting for BHO now.

Short version: this crisis has shown our political class, both left right and center, to be an army of either poltroons, whores or scamps, or some combination thereof. With such a dismal backdrop for a foil, Obama, whatever his leanings or calculations, shows none of these traits. He's an adult. He's calm, centered, intelligent. He's not greedy or self-aggrandizing.

In a forest full of midgets, Obama now appears ten feet tall.

Given the choices on offer, that's good enough. Not great, but about as much as we can hope for in an era of vastly diminished expectations.

T

100K in St. Louis!

Wow!

I Just LOVE Electoral Maps

It's a sickness, really. Maybe it's because, perversely, they reinforce the election-as-warfare concept. When you talk about McCain barely holding on south of the Mason-Dixon line, and how Obama has probably taken Virginia and is making inroads in Ohio...jeez, it sounds like something you'd hear in a Ken Burns documentary on the Civil War.

Anyway, I love electoral maps. So here's another cool one to add to your bookmarks. Zogby's interactive electoral map is pretty nifty (not to mention very, very blue right now). CLick on a state and get a succinct analysis of where things stand.

Housekeepin

Hey guys, I appreciate the posting. Now I would just ask that ya'll start buggin' Tep and Wandrey and Mr. Cookie and Aeromonas and Williamyard to come over and play. Let 'em know that Talkbackers is alive and cookin'. They need to hear it from somebody other than me.

Thanks.

"Racism is a Luxury"

Priceless post from Sean Quinnn at fivethirtyeight.com. They've been tramping across the country, looking at battlegrounds and safe states alike, checking out the electorate, reporting on the ground games (or lack thereof), as part of their "Road to 270" series. Great stuff. But yesterday's installment, on Pennsylvania, takes the cake. Must-read grafs:

So a canvasser goes to a woman's door in Washington, Pennsylvania. Knocks. Woman answers. Knocker asks who she's planning to vote for. She isn't sure, has to ask her husband who she's voting for. Husband is off in another room watching some game. Canvasser hears him yell back, "We're votin' for the n***er!"

Woman turns back to canvasser, and says brightly and matter of factly: "We're voting for the n***er."

My country, 'tis of thee...

Al Smith Dinner

Anyone else see McCain last night speaking cordially of Barack Obama? It was eye-opening, to say the least. Maybe McCain isn't a nasty little shit, after all? I was amazed.

Watch the video - it's pretty funny. McCain's praise of Obama starts at about the 10 minute mark. It is hard to reconcile this classy performance with the crude and dishonest personal attacks of his campaign - maybe it is a sign that McCain intends to take his campaign, and his honor, back from Steve Schmidt and Karl Rove.

One can only hope.

$70 a barrel

Oil is cheap again, thanks to a fall-off in demand. That may be a sign that people are a bit more conservation-minded, but more likely the price decline is driven by lower economic activity in the US and other developed nations. Low interest rates, low energy costs, and the end of the 2008 election season, may facilitate the recovery. Let's hope so.

Maverick No More

Last night, when Bob Schieffer asked John McCain about the nasty nature of his campaign's personal attacks on Obama, McCain responded by complaining about John Lewis (ignoring that he and his running mate have stood by while their supporters yell out death threats).

Then Schieffer asked McCain to comment on Sarah Palin's accusation that Obama pals around with terrorists. McCain responded by defending her audience.

OBAMA: But when people suggest that I pal around with terrorists, then we're not talking about issues. What we're talking about...

MCCAIN: Well, let me just say I would...

SCHIEFFER: (inaudible)

MCCAIN: Let me just say categorically I'm proud of the people that come to our rallies. Whenever you get a large rally of 10,000, 15,000, 20,000 people, you're going to have some fringe peoples. You know that. And I've -- and we've always said that that's not appropriate.

Senator McCain appears to be incapable of following the questions, and despite his reputation as a man who prizes honor above all else, his dissembling and self-interested rationalizations are especially jarring and deeply disappointing.

His campaign is shameful. When he defends the people who shout "Kill him" at his rallies, he insults the intelligence and character of the American people, and extends the Rove/Bush legacy of polarizing politics and cynicism. We have had enough of this, Mr McCain. We will be as glad to see you leave the stage on November 4 as we expect to be on January 20, when Bush and Rove slink off to whatever stinkhole will have them.

The crudescence of Republican politics has reached its nadir. One can only hope that the few remaining decent men and women of the GOP will take their party back over the next four years. McCain had a chance to start them in the right direction, but he chose instead to go with the flow. What a pity he did not live up to his now laughably discredited nickname.

Hey, Guys!

Brian, I wish I had seen more remarks from you. Do you have any overarching thoughts about the debate? Anybody?

McCain's last chance is in the wind

The debate was sad to watch. McCain was throwing ridiculous punches - maybe his base was impressed, but Obama laughed most of it off, and so did I.

Obama's performance was solid, if not as sharp as the town hall debate. McCain was aggressive but no more persuasive than in his earlier performances.

Are Americans really supposed to feel sorry for Joe the Plumber and his $250,000 in annual income -- 95% of us make a lot less. I don't get it.

I liked McCain's defense of Palin - what by the way is a breast of fresh air? Sounded like fun, but a little weird.

One Initial Thought

In passing I note that McCain's final statement was actually more airy than Obama's. McCain appears to honor and his family history. Obama appeals more directly to the voters.

More importantly: A lot of analysts, including George Will, have been saying that McCain's best line of attack is to raise the spectre of an undivided, liberal Democratic government.

McCain didn't do that. Interesting.

School Daze

McCain sez education is the "civil rights issue of the 21st century." Sounds smart. I'm not sure exactly what it means.

McCain looks kinda creepy. Obama has clearly thought about the education issue, and gives a pretty sharp answer. His speech is more fluid again, too.

The A Word

McCain makes it into an attack on Obama. Obama makes it about making good decisions.

Oh, here goes the jab at the McCain, and a thinly-veiled appeal to women.

John McCain talks about the "terribly difficult decision." Of course, he doesn't want it to be a decision.

I see at 538 that XX dialers are giving this one to Obama so far. Men: mixed.

McC: "That's the extreme pro-abortion position: health (of the mother)." Ooh. Good answer. Not.

Health Care

Obaama talks directly into the camera again, and gives a smart, if unimpassioned, answer.

Back to Joe the Plumber, who has already made the transformation from affecting and effective reference to a cheap gimmick. MK sez: he's gone from caring about Joe to using Joe. It's clear who he's targeting here: Joe, the white middle-class voter.

Obama talks to Joe: "Here's your fine, Joe: ZERO." He goes on to skewer McCain's health care plan.

McCain's counter is snarky. And completely untrue. Obama talks to Joe again.

Side note: snarkiness and small-scale fireworks aside, this debate so far is a lot about numbers and facts and such dryness. I don't see anything so far to ignite the voters' passion. Does anybody else?

"Climate Control..."

...is what you have in your Cadillac.

McCain takes the opportunity to lecture Obama on nuclear power.

Obama gives a realistic answer, looking right into the camera. I don't think he's was doing enough of that before. Obama's speech is a bit stumbly, but he still makes his points clearly. When he pivots to the Free Trade issue he gets more fluent, and pins it to American business and workers.

McCain looks sharp when he parses Obama's "we need to look at offshore drilling."

Why Would the Country Be Better Off With YOUR VEEP?

OBama gives a ringing endorsement of Biden and links it, once again "to 8 failed years" and his economic plan for struggling individuals and small businesses and energy and, gosh, we could all give this answer by now.

McC: "Americans have gotten to know Sarah Palin."

Yeah. Well. That's your problem, John-boy.

McCain appeals to the Special Needs voting block. After all, none of the other voting blocks are working out for him.

Is she qualified? Obama refuses to take the bait. "That's up to the American people." As to the special needs kids, John-boy, your across the board spending cut will kill research and special programs for those kids.

Say It To His Face Continued

First off: McCain never said it to his face.

Obama keeps bringing it back to this issue.

ACORN is destroying the fabric of democracy? Why wasn't I told?

"Mr. Ayers has become the centerpiece of Mr. McCain's campaign." Zing.

Obama has to go on the defensive for a minute, to brush aside ACORN and Ayers. Necessary, and he does it well, pivoting into a positive counter against McCain. "Says more about McCain's campaign than it does about me."

Can You Say It To His Face?

McCain's assertion that all the nastiness could have been avoided if only Obama had down the town halls hasn't worked before and it still sounds lame. Also, he falsely accuses Obama of not repudiating Lewis' remarks.

Obama takes the high road. "Let's make it about the issues."

No such luck. It's OBama who's running all the negative ads!

McCain is chomping at the bit. Again, he looks like The Angry Warrior. Obama looks like the Cool Cucumber.

Aren't You BOTH Out of Touch With Reality?

Obama's answer is okay, but a bit analytical.

McCain brings it right back to home values. Shieffer has to steer both of them back to the question.

Offshore drilling from McCain again. Not only is it a false issue, but it's getting old. And the spending freeze again. Then he gets made about the debt again, which nobody really gives two fucks about anymore. Subsidies for ethanol? Excuse me?

And the overhead projector again? Weird.

McCain is definitely swinging. He knows he's in the fight of his life. Obama is trying to give the impression that he's parrying calmly.

They're mixing it up a little, which is good.

Ergh

I don't like Obama bringing up Exxon/Mobile this much. It sounded good at first; now it has become a talking point. And McCain sounded a little more in touch with the Joe The Plumber/Warren Buffet dichotomy, even if it was facile.

Why Is Your Plan Better? Why, Joe the Plumber.

McCain gets a chance to swing at the first pitch on economics, which is good for him. McCain's answer sounds solid on the surface. An opportunity for him to speak to the economic concerns of everyday Americans.

Obama goes right to the Middle Class. (Can't remember if McCain said the Magic Words.)

McCain's counter is about some plumber named Joe, and how Obama is destroying the American dream. Will Obama talk to Joe by name?

No, but he does talk to "95% of you out there," looking right into the camera. And he responds on the "Joe the Plumber issue."

I think this exchange is a draw, or even a slight advantage to McCain!

Waiting For The Asteroid

The talking heads all seem to think that McCain has to drop some sort of bombshell to stay in the race tonight. It's also CW that this puts McCain in a tight spot: he can't go negative, but he can't win without going negative. I'm betting that McCain ends the night with a whimper rather than a bag. But I could certainly be wrong. Let's just see, shall we?

Talkbackers Liveblog!

Well, some of us, at least.

Here's how I think we should do this. Short individual posts on specific chunks of the debate. When I liveblogged the last debate on my own blog, I did it by questions. But any approach you like is fine. The key is to make short posts, as this allows you to quickly pivot to the next issue in your next post.

And that's it. No other rules, except, of course, those that govern basic human civility.

Let's go for it!

Debate Night!

So, how do we do this liveblogging thing? In the comments?

Craven Is The Word

Over on the Stump, Noam Scheiber alerts us to Matt Dowd's comments on McCain's "craven" VEEP pick. Take a look and follow the link.

"Craven" is the best way to describe it.

This, for me, should be the gist of it for the electorate. In a desperate bid to solidify his base and pander to the XX half of the electorate, McCain put the entire nation at risk by choosing Sarah Palin.

"Country first," indeed.

"Honor," indeed.

Yes, McCain has bragged of being "the biggest deregulator you ever saw." His economic "plans" are disjointed and ad hoc at best. Unlike the thin gruel of the Ayers association, McCain's Keating Five involvement shows that he's been on the wrong side of issues that have tremendous currency. Even now, he continues to repackage the utter failure that is Reagonomics for the electorate. His obstinate subscription to the Bush foreign policy is a huge black eye, and his repeated references to some undefined, mystical "Victory" in Iraq hints at a disturbing Quixotic neurosis. His campaign has been disorganized, flat-footed, tactical (if you'll forgive) rather than strategic, and in some ways more malevant even than the Rove playbook. Last week his campaign had to pull back from incitations to violence.

And the man is fairly starting to dodder.

But forget all that. Palin alone disqualifies McCain, at the most fundamental level, to be Commander in Chief. In a crunch, at a time of crisis, HE PUT HIMSELF AHEAD OF HIS COUNTRY, and showed that he could not be trusted to make decisions for the nation. Not only should he not be President, he should retire from public life altogether, in disgrace.

McCain is a man I once admired. Now I am ashamed of him.

(copied to Talkbackers.)

Obama And Spiders

For Tep:

Hitchens Endorses Obama...

...with his usual rabid eloquence.

Another Electoral Simulator

If you like Nate Silver's site*, where he runs a simulated election 10,000x/day based on a detailed model driven by careful polling analysis, then you'll probably like this site, too. It's probably less elaborate and accurate, but unlike Nate's site it will run a simulation right in front of you in about 15 seconds, which is kind of a cool in a quasi-interactive, time-wasting sort of way.

*Some of us don't just like Nate's site. For some of us, it's like crack.

Hey Sully, 

I signed up. Cool. I will be checking in on this board every now and then. 

Be the change

Be the change you want to see in the world.

I don't know who said that - my well-read friends here will surely help me with this point. What I know is that it is the kernel of wisdom that will save us in this time of financial crisis, this time of doubt and confusion, this epochal transition into an uncertain future.

Barack Obama, the community organizer, whose faith in collective action inspires his campaign for the presidency, is the right man for this time. For eight years, a corrupt political machine leveraged religion and prejudice to divide us and manipulate us for the benefit of the rich and powerful. How sick we are - our society and political system have been disfigured by this disease as surely as if a real and devastating virus had run amuk for the past eight years.

It is a wonder we have the strength to do now what we must.

Obama is another wonder. How strange that the man has arrived on the scene now, with exactly the right prescription. The remedy to this pathology is certainly not more of the same - we need a new remedy, a break with the past, a positive and unifying movement based on our shared values and interests - yes and also shared sacrifices, commitments, and rewards.

We have been in the dark too long - we aren't sure we believe anymore in our ability to make it happen. Perhaps I am too naive - perhaps this is also true of the Obama wunderkind - but I believe our best days are still ahead of us if we have the courage to work for it.

I am 53 years old. I have time, and some small talent, to contribute. I am working on making it happen. What about you? Will you do something?

This is what it is about now - it is in our hands. Whatever happens now, it will be because we made it happen, or did not.

Neil

We All Have a Hand in the Meltdown...

...but there is a silver lining.

Great stuff, as usual, from Fareed Zakaria.

Second Post

For Sarah Silverman

First Post

There are some brilliant and nifty people over in the talkback forums at TNR. I'm talking about you, williamyard, mr. cookie, aeromonas, wandrey, channie, et al. Y'all know who you are.

But the TNR forums have been crippled for a couple of years now, ever since the magazine undertook its unnecessary and grossly incompetent website overhaul. We keep waiting for it to get better, but it never does. Long posting times, trolls, barbarians at the gates...it's become difficult to engage in the kind of back-and-forth ferment that used to be one of the most attractive features of the old tnr.

So...let's see if this works. Chime in, y'all, and let's start some new threads.